Over the last few months, debt issues in Continental Europe have rocked the euro zone. Many nations are facing high budget deficits and yields on government debt in these countries is approaching double digits, leading many to think that default is right around the corner. Several nations and supranational organizations have stepped up to prevent this from happening, pledging hundreds of billions in aid to nations such as Greece in order to stop a contagion situation from happening throughout the euro zone. However, many are growing increasingly concerned over the situation in the UK as well. Inflation is running high and austerity measures have, so far, failed to help bring budget deficits back under control. As a result, Moody’s recently warned that the country’s AAA credit rating could soon be at risk, although the company still maintains a ‘stable’ outlook for now. “Although the weaker economic growth prospects in 2011 and 2012 do not directly cast doubt on the UK’s sovereign rating level, we believe that slower growth combined with weaker-than-expected fiscal consolidation efforts could cause the UK’s debt metrics to deteriorate to a point that would be inconsistent with a Aaa rating,” said Sarah Carlson, an analyst at Moody’s Investors Service.
Due to these concerns, today’s Bank of England meeting looks to be especially important, as it could signal how the central bank expects the British economy to fare in the rest of 2011 as well as the Bank’s plans for raising rates to curtain inflation in the medium-term. While pretty much all economists expect the BOE to keep rates steady at 0.5%, many will likely look for the Bank to signal rate increases later this year or early next. Inflation came in at 4.5% in April, a two-and-a-half year high, and well above the the 2.0% target that the central bank sets. However, growth has been pretty weak in the country as the national GDP has been flat over the past six months [Will Decades Of Austerity Crush Britain ETF?].
Food and energy inflation has been the biggest culprit for the price hikes across the country as staples have soared by 25% and the annual rate of price increases for all types of food hit 4.9% in May. These increases in food costs, compounded with rising utility rates across much of the nation, is hitting the beaten down British consumer especially hard making a rate increase likely to hit the market sooner rather than later, if for no other reason than to contain these potentially crippling developments. Nevertheless, with growth so abysmal, many are hoping that the Bank will hold out a little longer in hopes that continued easy money policies will help to stoke GDP growth later this year. ‘While increased utility prices and high inflation puts the MPC in an uncomfortable situation, countering this with a rise in interest rates would be a mistake. As long as wage increases remain subdued, the MPC should hold its nerve for the time being.’ said David Kern, chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC). [see Non Euro European ETF Options]
Thanks to this important meeting, investors should look for the iShares MSCI United Kingdom Index Fund (EWU) to remain in focus throughout Thursday’s trading session. The fund tracks the MSCI United Kingdom Index which measures the performance of the British equity market. In total, the ETF holds 110 securities and has close to 20% in both the energy and the financial services sectors. Thanks to continued worries over debt crises in many of its neighboring markets as well as concerns over its own debt and inflation problems as well, EWU has has a rough start to 2011, gaining just 4.1% so far this year including a 3.1% drop in the past week alone. Should the BOE be able to soothe investor fears over a growing British debt crisis, EWU could surge in Thursday trading. If, however, rate hikes look to be put off indefinately and investors continue to worry over inflation, look for EWU to continue its recent downtrend and fall on the day [see more on EWU's fact sheet].
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Disclosure: No positions at time of writing.
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This is an open letter from an Auburn Alumn who asked me if i could provide a venue to react to Stanley McClover and his accusations on HBO regarding Auburn Football and illegal benefits.
If you're not up to date on Mr. McClover check out this story in the New York Times.
"In response to Stanley McClover's outburst of ignorance on HBO February 25th, some may think he did future athletes a favor by coming clean about the alleged transgressions at Auburn.
However, the truth of the matter is that McClover was a student athlete given an opportunity get an education and also an opportunity to play professional sports. McGlover was granted the opportunities that so many dream about, although injuries cut short his dream of becoming an NFL star.
Please don't forget that Auburn was the catalyst for McClover making it to the NFL. As a student athlete, a school is not responsible for what happens once you leave the university. He should be grateful that he even had the chance to reach his goals that so many minorities don't even have the chance to receive.
If he was indeed receiving special benefits that were against NCAA rules, why wait years after he received them to blast the university that gave you an education, and most importantly, an OPPORTUNITY?
I am not saying that benefits are not received at colleges and universities across the country or that Auburn is 100% innocent. I think the recent developments at Ohio State and USC make it clear that change is needed. I didn't take any benefits while I was at Auburn, and to the best of my knowledge, Auburn has run a clean program by SEC standards.
Auburn gave McGlover a head start in life, and all he can do is try to tear down the institution that did nothing but try to better him as a human being.
Here it is several years later, and he's trying to do what? Regardless of what's been said and done, once Stanley McClover is gone and Auburn is still going to be here.
Stanley McClover, you tell me what is your legacy? He says he wanted to help underprivileged kids from being taken advantage of by big time college football to help his non-profit organization.
In reality, what I think is that you have heightened the scrutiny of college sports to the point where kids who don't have many options have less opportunity because of your selfishness.
He said he didn't take any money from HBO, but I beg to differ; we all know that Alabama is a football state and football is king. I know he took 15K from a University of Alabama booster to do the interview. What is more shameless that an Auburn man taking money from Alabama booster to snitch to the whole world?
Stanley, I know you personally so while you are blaming other people about your problems, should we investigate your dealings with LSU? You took 10k from LSU directly and still didn't go to LSU. If you want to air out dirty laundry we can do that all day.
McClover took another 15K from HBO as well to even do the interview. He also took money from Michigan State and Ohio State, so it seems to me that the only constant in his story is that he always has his hand out looking for handouts. This seriously jeopardizes his credibility as far as dragging Auburn's name through the mud.
Therefore, he is still doing wrong and is the type of person that will do anything to get ahead in life. Furthermore, he said you wanted to go to Ohio State because they were a good institution and a better school, but look where they are now. I suggest McClover leaves Auburn alone and figure out what he wants to do with his life because he had his opportunity and he wasted it."
Sincerely, concerned Auburn Alumni
I posted this letter because someone I know wanted to tell what he knew about the dealings of Stanley McClover.
Holllywood Clayborne
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